Autonomous Flying Vehicles

Dubai's autonomous air taxis: 2018 a real thing?

Independent flying automobiles may seem like a picture from a sci-fi film, but the tech already exist physically: In September 2017, Dubai began to test electrical cab drone vehicles. Much like a two-seater chopper, the Volocopter-Taxi is conceived for 30-minute trips to and from "Voloports", which are essentially railway yards for flying cabs.

In 2018, autonomous air taxi services will almost certainly not come onto the market as a commercial usableality. "Everything that goes beyond early prototyping tests - and even that would be nothing more than a news item - is very unlikely in the US in 2018," said Carl Doty, Forrester' VP of emerging technologies research.

In a Gartner research paper published in September 2017, flying autonomous vehicles were described as "the next big thing it's not". "Autonomous flying vehicles could make transport quick, comfortable and effective, but would demand enormous changes in society, politics and regulation," the Gartner said. Is flying car even legitimate? "The FAA was careful when it came to leisure UAVs, so it would have to make a "180-degree curve" to allow flying cabs, Doty said.

Airborne cabs would most likely require FAA Part 135 accreditation to be used as passengers transport for offsetting, said Samuel Engel, head of ICF's air traffic team. Further barriers to market applications are security concerns, the high cost of technologies and the absence of crucial infrastructures to assist such vehicles.

" Airborne cabs must end up near passenger to distinguish themselves, said Bryan Mulligan, chairman of the Transport Technologies Board of the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA). "Airfields must be near community areas from which persons must travel, but they must also be free of obstacles in order to guarantee a secure and legitimate flight.

"In order to be constantly available, taxi drivers must be able to operate according to dashboard flying rules," Engel said. A number of aerial taxi cabs use a chute system for security, but this system requires several hundred ft to allow passengers to make a safe landing, Brusehaver said. As with normal taxi, both physically and wireless attack are possible.

However, in the skies you can clash with other drone, bird or floor, said Espinosa. Once tech is taken apart in large towns, these dangers would be exacerbated by the number of flying cabs likely to be in the skies at the same moment. "Colliding between several cabs in the skies due to false positioning information sent to each cab to cause a colision can be fatal," Espinosa said.

Mulligan said the sound of flying cabs has no resolution in view. "Those gadgets will be unbelievably noisy and we will not allow them to fly over our homes or cities," Mulligan said. "It' s hard to see the company's societal case for flying cabs because the benefits are relatively small - wealthy people can spare a little extra money compared to a normal cab - and the punishment for the company will be enormous.... they will all go mad!

According to the Gartner forecast, the regulation of flying vehicles will probably not be completed before 2027. MyRadar aviator and CEO Andrew Green forecasts that it will take five years for air taxi services to gain acceptance and notes that Chinese, European and Middle Eastern destinations are more challenging than the world' s.

"Recent years have shown us the advances in the autonomous earth moving equipment manufacturing and the autonomous aerial taxicab is the next logical expansion of it," Green said. But a number of technology firms are working on flying cabs and have time limits to start their work. It is Airbus' hope to release its flying cab by 2020.

Though flying automobiles will not be arriving in 2018, technological firms still expect to see the expansion of road-bound automated guided vehicles this year. Analysts say 2019 could be a more down-to-earth year for the industry. GM is planning to deploy autonomous taxi fleet in 2019, as the firm released in December 2017. "According to preliminary testing in October 2016, Uber already uses human-controlled self-propelled automobiles in several towns and hopes to transition to a humane car by partnering with Volvo," Doty said.

"I think Uber's relationship with Volvo is intelligent because it is a marque whose power comes from its leading role in automotive safety," Doty said. Small bets are possible until the end of 2018, but 2019 is more likely, Doty added.