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South west: I love this low-cost airline - South West Airlines Co. <: (NYSE:LUV)
I' ve been following the aviation business at home and abroad for some now. However, I had never, until now, devoted much of my life to taking a closer look at the cheap Southwest Airlines (LUV) located in Dallas. Indeed, LUV has fallen by about 6% so far this year, while peer Delta Airlines (DAL) and even Spirit Airlines (SAVE), together with the broader carrier segment (JETS), have outperformed LUV by at least five percent.
I am interested in this share today because of its preservative approach to doing business in a sector that is inherently erratic and erratic. The focus is on the South West's security policies for fuels, which have been criticised by some for the adverse effects of security loss in an economic climate of falling petroleum tariffs (2014 to not so long ago).
Let's just momentarily disregard the fact that the purchase prices of a drum of crude petroleum have been doubling since the beginning of 2016 and that the economics of the mean volume of fuels in the southwest were the second cheapest in the sector after taking hedgerows and other related expenses into consideration in the second quarter of 18.
In the last ten consecutive quarter, each of the seven listed airlines in the US saw strong fluctuations in US aviation costs. Delta, my favourite Big 3 carrier, recently expanded its bandwidth by 84 cent from $1.33/barrel in the first quarter of 16 to $2.17/barrel in the case of Delta. For the southwest, the spread was much narrower: 43 cent from a low of $1.78 per barrel.
It should be noted that the difference (measured in a single unit deviation) in mean propellant charges in the Southwest was much smaller than for other airlines. So will the price of raw materials keep rising, favouring those gamblers like Southwest who are better placed to compensate for higher petrol bills with security hedges? Keep in mind that, as shown in the last profit distribution, "fuel hedges on Brent $80/bbl and above price of Brent crude oil" are more pronounced - a landmark that has just been achieved in the last few trading day.
Aeronautics is a difficult sector to be invested in and I believe that the price of fuel is one of the main drivers of uncertainty. Relying on LUV, I would say that an investor might be able to be more conservative in the air travel market, which I think is very much to be desired in a very profitable, extremely variable sector - note that the line of 12 months of Southwest GAAP EPS over the last five years, the line of business that is the blueline, has been much more resilient than what the sector has been able to provide over the same years.
Southwest' tentative stance on the cost of fuels is certainly only the beginning. Southwest is the only carrier with net liquidity (as distinct from net debt) in an industrial sector strongly dependent on equity investment. Therefore, Southwest is not only the most profitably performing of all airlines on a twelve-month GAAP operating margins base (15.1% vs. Delta's 12.9% in second place), but also hardly any profits of the carrier are deducted from net interest expense.
The southwest is not lagging behind at all in operational terms. In the second quarter, the carrier generated the best PRASM (Passenger Traffic per Mean Journey Mile) among the low-cost airlines with $12.91 compared to the second-placed JetBlue's (JBLU) with $12.27 - although the carrier seems to feel some of the pains of the overall decline in low-cost rates in the sector.
It is not at a low level for the industry, but is rather able to compete at $8.20 and falls at the second quickest rate after the extremely inexpensive Spirit Airlines game. Compared to its peer group, it is indeed the most expensive name you can buy: the price/earnings ratio of the year at 15. 0x is almost two rounds higher than that of JBLU, and about five rounds higher than the averages of the "Big 3" Delta, American (AAL) and United (UAL).
And, in my opinion, Southwest Airlines is far from being an aggressively growing business like the Peer Spirit (NASDAQ:SAVE), considering that the company's biggest cheap airline squad hasn't increased much recently. While past performances cannot in any way ensure our continued results, I believe that the company's outstanding regional performances, combined with a prudent approach to fuels and financial reporting, have been mirrored in the highest annualised returns in the last five years, at 34.
Although I cannot say with any certainty whether the best in-class adjusted yields will remain the standard for the Southwest in the future, I believe that LUV is still the most likely choice in the airlines industry to give stockholders a more generous rewards, especially on a risk-adjusted one. I' ve just completed a US aerospace survey, and I' ve started by sharing my results with my stable resistant growth group, along with my Excel work sheet with all the detail.